Comprehensive Documentation Audit
Systematic review and update of all documentation surfaces across the platform, ensuring every feature is accurately reflected in the About page, Wiki/Glossary, Methodology, Admin Docs, FAQ, and pipeline animations.
Key Highlights
- 3 new FAQ entries covering Sentiment Impact Badges, Historical Anomaly Log, and UCDP Conflict Overlay
- 5 new Wiki glossary terms and 3 new platform feature entries
- Methodology AI Signal Layer updated with V2Tone sentiment-to-CEI wiring and anomaly detection
- Admin Docs expanded: Phases 21-23 changelog, 3 new database tables, 6 API endpoints, 3 SOPs, 3 troubleshooting entries
- Pipeline animations (ARGOSFlowAnimation, ARGOSPachinkoViz) updated with sentiment references
Sentiment Impact Badges & Historical Anomaly Log
Added real-time Sentiment Impact Badges to the GRS-Live Alert Widget showing each top-mover country's CEI contribution from GDELT media tone. Built a comprehensive Historical Anomaly Log admin page for reviewing, filtering, resolving, and exporting sentiment anomaly events.
Key Highlights
- Sentiment Impact Badges on GRS-Live Alert Widget (directional arrows with magnitude)
- Historical Anomaly Log at /admin/anomaly-log with summary cards, severity filters, and bulk resolution
- CSV export for offline archival and trend analysis
- Anomaly persistence in sentiment_anomaly_log database table
- 22 vitest tests for anomaly log schema, persistence, and admin procedures
Sentiment-to-CEI Wiring & Anomaly Detection
Wired GDELT V2Tone media sentiment scores into the CEI sub-index at 10% weight, creating a direct link between global media tone and the Cascade Exposure Index. Built z-score anomaly detection that monitors each country's tone for drops exceeding 2 sigma below the 30-day mean, triggering automated owner notifications.
Key Highlights
- CEI_blended = 0.90 x CEI_OSINT + 0.10 x sentiment_risk (v2.1 formula)
- Z-score anomaly detection with ELEVATED (z < -2.0) and SEVERE (z < -3.0) severity levels
- Automated owner notifications via notifyOwner() with 24-hour cooldown per country
- Cross-country sentiment comparison on Compare page (SentimentComparison.tsx)
- 28 vitest tests for sentiment-CEI bridge
GDELT V2Tone Sentiment Analysis & Media Sentiment Tab
Integrated GDELT DOC 2.0 API for real-time media sentiment analysis across all 85 ARGOS nations. Each country's detail view now includes a Media Sentiment Analysis tab with V2Tone timeline, tone distribution, and article volume charts.
Key Highlights
- GDELT DOC 2.0 API integration with TimelineTone mode for 30-day sentiment tracking
- Media Sentiment Analysis tab on every country detail view
- Sentiment cache with 6-hour refresh cycle (gdelt_sentiment_cache table)
- FIPS 10-4 to ISO 3166-1 country code mapping for GDELT compatibility
- Deliberate exclusion of social media sentiment with documented academic rationale
UCDP Conflict Overlay & Source Health Monitoring
Added a toggleable UCDP Conflict Overlay to the World Map page, rendering georeferenced conflict events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP GED Candidate v26.0.1) as scaled circle markers. Built a Source Health monitoring page for administrators to track OSINT source uptime and reliability.
Key Highlights
- UCDP Conflict Overlay with fatality-scaled markers and violence-type color coding
- Detailed tooltips with conflict name, date, location, fatality estimates, and UCDP event ID
- Source Health admin page (/admin/source-health) with uptime, response time, and error tracking
- UCDP API authentication with access token validation
- 20 vitest tests for UCDP integration and overlay
HDX & ICG CrisisWatch Integration
Expanded the OSINT pipeline with two additional humanitarian data sources: the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) from UN OCHA and the International Crisis Group (ICG) CrisisWatch monthly briefings. Both sources are integrated into the scheduler and signal processing pipeline.
Key Highlights
- HDX API integration for humanitarian datasets and crisis indicators
- ICG CrisisWatch RSS feed parsing for monthly conflict assessments
- Source credibility scoring for new sources (HDX: Tier 1, ICG: Tier 1)
- Updated scheduler rotation to include new sources
Multi-Source OSINT, Scenario Presets & Signal Quality Dashboard
Expanded the OSINT pipeline from GDELT-only to a multi-source architecture including ReliefWeb API and 13+ RSS wire services. Added pre-built scenario presets to the Scenario Builder and a dedicated Signal Quality Dashboard for monitoring AI signal reliability.
Key Highlights
- Multi-source OSINT: GDELT + ReliefWeb API + 13 RSS wire services (Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.)
- Signal Quality Dashboard (/signal-quality) with convergence metrics and source distribution
- Scenario Builder presets for common geopolitical scenarios
- Source credibility scoring across 5 tiers (50+ known domains)
DeGroot Consensus Noise Reduction Pipeline
Replaced the simple weighted averaging in the AI Signal Layer with a 5-stage iterative consensus-based noise reduction pipeline. The new architecture uses Bayesian source credibility scoring, Jaccard trigram deduplication, DeGroot consensus fusion, EMA smoothing, and confidence-weighted clamping.
Key Highlights
- 5-stage pipeline: Credibility Scoring, Deduplication, DeGroot Fusion, EMA Smoothing, Clamping
- DeGroot Consensus convergence via iterative weighted averaging under row-stochastic conditions (DeGroot, 1974)
- Real-time DeGroot convergence scatter visualization (convergence monitor)
- Designed to produce lower-variance signals than simple weighted averaging (under signal independence assumption)
GRS-Live Toggle, Alert Widget & Translation
Added a global GRS-Baseline vs GRS-Live toggle that permeates across all 10 data-displaying pages. Built the GRS-Live Alert Widget showing top signal movers. Implemented server-side OSINT headline translation to English via Forge LLM.
Key Highlights
- GRS-Baseline/GRS-Live toggle on Dashboard, World Map, Scenarios, Correlation, Compare, DataExplorer, Variable Explorer, Sensitivity, Intelligence, and Watchlist
- GRS-Live Alert Widget with top 5 countries by signal magnitude
- Server-side headline translation via Forge LLM
- Role-based access control (admin/user) for sensitive operations
Watchlist Management & Comparative Overlays
Built a dedicated Watchlist management page with 4-tier visualization, drag-and-drop reordering, and one-click add/remove from the dashboard. Added comparative GRS-Live overlays for multi-country trend analysis.
Key Highlights
- Watchlist page (/watchlist) with 4-tier priority system
- Comparative GRS-Live overlays (multi-country selection, 3 view modes)
- Signal-only country tracking for nations without GRS baseline
- Email digest scheduling (daily/weekly summary)
Scheduler Expansion, Notifications & Trend Chart
Expanded the automated scheduler to cover all 85 ARGOS nations with a 4-tier priority system. Added owner notifications for high-magnitude OSINT events and a GRS-Live historical trend chart.
Key Highlights
- 85-nation scheduler with 4 priority tiers (Critical, High, Elevated, Standard)
- Owner notifications for GRS-Live jumps exceeding 3 points
- GRS-Live historical trend chart (GRSLiveTrendChart.tsx)
- Configurable watchlist overrides for priority scheduling
Intelligence Page, Alerts & Scheduled Refresh
Built a dedicated Intelligence page displaying categorized OSINT articles with sub-index assignments and confidence scores. Added scheduled 6-hour signal refresh for automatic GRS-Live updates.
Key Highlights
- Intelligence page (/intelligence) with categorized OSINT articles
- Sub-index assignment badges and confidence scores per article
- Automated 6-hour signal refresh cycle (scheduler.ts)
- Live GDELT ingestion with Refresh Signals button
AI Signal Layer & GRS-Live
Launched the AI Signal Layer (Layer 8) that ingests real-time OSINT from GDELT, classifies events via Forge LLM, and produces 5 AI adjustment signals (ISI-AI, ETI-AI, EVI-AI, CEI-AI, ACI-AI). GRS-Live = GRS-Baseline + AI Signal Adjustment.
Key Highlights
- GDELT ingestion API route (server-side, no CORS issues)
- Forge LLM classification for sub-index mapping
- GRS-Live computation: baseline + AI adjustment
- GRS-Live panel on Dashboard with signal indicators and timeline
- Layer 8 added to ARGOS Data Pipeline animation
ARGOS Platform Launch
Initial release of the ARGOS Geopolitical Risk Engine web platform. Implements the full 7-layer computational architecture with 22 statistical models, 90 base input variables, and 5 sub-indices producing a Geopolitical Risk Score (GRS) for 85 nations.
Key Highlights
- Dashboard with interactive world map, risk gauge, sub-index profiles, and radar charts
- Scenario Builder for what-if sub-index simulations
- Correlation Matrix, Sensitivity Analysis, and Data Explorer
- Compare page for multi-country analysis
- Case Studies, Methodology, Wiki, About, and Legal pages
- PDF export (one-page brief and full briefing)
- World Bank live data integration
- Historical GRS back-calculation (2005-2024)