Algorithm Audit v10: Cross-Consistency & Claim-Risk Remediation
Systematic audit remediation addressing 20 items across the website and 15 manuscript sections. Corrected tier examples to match actual GRS data, fixed Arab Spring contagion lag to 28 days (Ben Ali flees Jan 14 to Mubarak resigns Feb 11), updated nation count (85→87), added lambda weight rationale and limitations note, replaced residual Nash labels with DeGroot Consensus, and added model-risk disclaimer to validation pages.
Key Highlights
- Tier examples corrected: Russia/India→Elevated, Pakistan/Iran/Ukraine/Iraq→High, Sudan replaces Somalia in Critical
- Lambda weight rationale added to Wiki Section 7 with machine-verified bounds [-8.25, +93.25] (Theorem 10, Lean 4)
- Arab Spring contagion lag corrected to 28 days (Ben Ali flees Jan 14 to Mubarak resigns Feb 11)
- Nation count updated from 85 to 87 across all pages and server code
- Residual Nash equilibrium labels replaced with DeGroot Consensus in Intelligence pipeline
- Model-risk disclaimer added: ARGOS is a structured analytic framework, not a formally validated predictive engine
- Prospective framing clarified on Case Studies and Validation pages
- V2Tone Pearson r=0.82 citation added (Leetaru & Schrodt, 2013)
Formal Verification, Strategic Alerts & GRS-z Cascade
Formally verified 17 structural properties of the ARGOS algorithm using the Lean 4 theorem prover (v4.29.0) via the AXLE platform. Added a dynamic strategic alerts system with database-driven country-specific risk annotations manageable from the Admin Panel. Extended the Equation Cascade to Layer 9 (GRS-z Redshift) with 5 new equations showing H, C, V, D components resolving.
Key Highlights
- 17 theorems machine-checked via Lean 4/AXLE: weight normalization, boundedness, monotonicity (incl. ENV/SCI), tier completeness
- AXLE Check: okay: TRUE (17/17 declarations verified)
- AXLE Disprove: 0/17 counterexamples found (robustness confirmed)
- New /formal-verification page with expandable Lean 4 proofs and attestation screen captures
- Dynamic Strategic Alerts: database-driven, admin-manageable for any country/hotspot
- Pre-seeded alerts for India, Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, Russia, China
- Layer 9 GRS-z Redshift: Alliance Entropy (H), Capability Concentration (C), Voting Divergence (V), Diplomatic Dispersion (D)
- Pipeline now shows L1-L9 with 42 total equations in the Firefly Cascade
- Wiki Section 10: Formal Verification with attestation evidence images
- 6 new glossary terms: AXLE, Lean 4, Formal Verification, Theorem, norm_num, nlinarith
ENV/SCI Stress Testing, Data Freshness & Automated Refresh Pipeline
Extended the Scenario Builder with a dedicated ENV/SCI Stress Testing tab featuring 14 individual variable sliders with real-time tanh-bounded GRS recomputation. Added data freshness indicators to the Audit Trail with Fresh/Aging/Stale badges and progress bars. Built an automated Data Refresh Pipeline monitoring 5 authoritative sources via API and HTTP checks.
Key Highlights
- 14 ENV/SCI variable sliders in Scenario Builder with 8 preset stress scenarios
- Real-time tier transition preview showing before/after GRS and tier changes
- Data freshness badges (Fresh/Aging/Stale) with progress bars on Audit Trail sources
- Automated refresh pipeline checking World Bank API, FAO, USGS, ND-GAIN, WRI
- Data Refresh dashboard with source cards, check history, and one-click bulk validation
- Database-backed check history with status tracking and next-due scheduling
ENV/SCI Cross-Validation, Print CSS & Manuscript Updates
Cross-validated all ENV/SCI data against ND-GAIN 2023, USGS MCS 2025, WRI Aqueduct 4.0, and FAO AQUASTAT 2025. Applied 34 variable updates across 17 countries with full GRS recalculation. Added print-optimized CSS for the ENV & Supply Chain dashboard and built the Cross-Validation Audit Trail page.
Key Highlights
- 34 variable updates from 4 peer-reviewed sources across 17 countries
- 21 tier changes from GRS recalculation with updated ENV/SCI values
- Print-optimized CSS for ENV & Supply Chain dashboard (all tabs expanded, heatmap colors preserved)
- Cross-Validation Audit Trail page with 34 records, source provenance panels, and detail modals
- Camera-ready manuscript updated to v2.4 with 7 embedded screenshots
Comprehensive Documentation Audit
Systematic review and update of all documentation surfaces across the platform, ensuring every feature is accurately reflected in the About page, Wiki/Glossary, Methodology, Admin Docs, FAQ, and pipeline animations.
Key Highlights
- 3 new FAQ entries covering Sentiment Impact Badges, Historical Anomaly Log, and UCDP Conflict Overlay
- 5 new Wiki glossary terms and 3 new platform feature entries
- Methodology AI Signal Layer updated with V2Tone sentiment-to-CEI wiring and anomaly detection
- Admin Docs expanded: Phases 21-23 changelog, 3 new database tables, 6 API endpoints, 3 SOPs, 3 troubleshooting entries
- Pipeline animations (ARGOSFlowAnimation, ARGOSPachinkoViz) updated with sentiment references
Sentiment Impact Badges & Historical Anomaly Log
Added real-time Sentiment Impact Badges to the GRS-Live Alert Widget showing each top-mover country's CEI contribution from GDELT media tone. Built a comprehensive Historical Anomaly Log admin page for reviewing, filtering, resolving, and exporting sentiment anomaly events.
Key Highlights
- Sentiment Impact Badges on GRS-Live Alert Widget (directional arrows with magnitude)
- Historical Anomaly Log at /admin/anomaly-log with summary cards, severity filters, and bulk resolution
- CSV export for offline archival and trend analysis
- Anomaly persistence in sentiment_anomaly_log database table
- 22 vitest tests for anomaly log schema, persistence, and admin procedures
Sentiment-to-CEI Wiring & Anomaly Detection
Wired GDELT V2Tone media sentiment scores into the CEI sub-index at 10% weight, creating a direct link between global media tone and the Cascade Exposure Index. Built z-score anomaly detection that monitors each country's tone for drops exceeding 2 sigma below the 30-day mean, triggering automated owner notifications.
Key Highlights
- CEI_blended = 0.90 x CEI_OSINT + 0.10 x sentiment_risk (v2.1 formula)
- Z-score anomaly detection with ELEVATED (z < -2.0) and SEVERE (z < -3.0) severity levels
- Automated owner notifications via notifyOwner() with 24-hour cooldown per country
- Cross-country sentiment comparison on Compare page (SentimentComparison.tsx)
- 28 vitest tests for sentiment-CEI bridge
GDELT V2Tone Sentiment Analysis & Media Sentiment Tab
Integrated GDELT DOC 2.0 API for real-time media sentiment analysis across all 85 ARGOS nations. Each country's detail view now includes a Media Sentiment Analysis tab with V2Tone timeline, tone distribution, and article volume charts.
Key Highlights
- GDELT DOC 2.0 API integration with TimelineTone mode for 30-day sentiment tracking
- Media Sentiment Analysis tab on every country detail view
- Sentiment cache with 6-hour refresh cycle (gdelt_sentiment_cache table)
- FIPS 10-4 to ISO 3166-1 country code mapping for GDELT compatibility
- Deliberate exclusion of social media sentiment with documented academic rationale
UCDP Conflict Overlay & Source Health Monitoring
Added a toggleable UCDP Conflict Overlay to the World Map page, rendering georeferenced conflict events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP GED Candidate v26.0.1) as scaled circle markers. Built a Source Health monitoring page for administrators to track OSINT source uptime and reliability.
Key Highlights
- UCDP Conflict Overlay with fatality-scaled markers and violence-type color coding
- Detailed tooltips with conflict name, date, location, fatality estimates, and UCDP event ID
- Source Health admin page (/admin/source-health) with uptime, response time, and error tracking
- UCDP API authentication with access token validation
- 20 vitest tests for UCDP integration and overlay
HDX & ICG CrisisWatch Integration
Expanded the OSINT pipeline with two additional humanitarian data sources: the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) from UN OCHA and the International Crisis Group (ICG) CrisisWatch monthly briefings. Both sources are integrated into the scheduler and signal processing pipeline.
Key Highlights
- HDX API integration for humanitarian datasets and crisis indicators
- ICG CrisisWatch RSS feed parsing for monthly conflict assessments
- Source credibility scoring for new sources (HDX: Tier 1, ICG: Tier 1)
- Updated scheduler rotation to include new sources
Multi-Source OSINT, Scenario Presets & Signal Quality Dashboard
Expanded the OSINT pipeline from GDELT-only to a multi-source architecture including ReliefWeb API and 13+ RSS wire services. Added pre-built scenario presets to the Scenario Builder and a dedicated Signal Quality Dashboard for monitoring AI signal reliability.
Key Highlights
- Multi-source OSINT: GDELT + ReliefWeb API + 13 RSS wire services (Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.)
- Signal Quality Dashboard (/signal-quality) with convergence metrics and source distribution
- Scenario Builder presets for common geopolitical scenarios
- Source credibility scoring across 5 tiers (50+ known domains)
DeGroot Consensus Noise Reduction Pipeline
Replaced the simple weighted averaging in the AI Signal Layer with a 5-stage iterative consensus-based noise reduction pipeline. The new architecture uses Bayesian source credibility scoring, Jaccard trigram deduplication, DeGroot consensus fusion, EMA smoothing, and confidence-weighted clamping.
Key Highlights
- 5-stage pipeline: Credibility Scoring, Deduplication, DeGroot Fusion, EMA Smoothing, Clamping
- DeGroot Consensus convergence via iterative weighted averaging under row-stochastic conditions (DeGroot, 1974)
- Real-time DeGroot convergence scatter visualization (convergence monitor)
- Designed to produce lower-variance signals than simple weighted averaging (under signal independence assumption)
GRS-Live Toggle, Alert Widget & Translation
Added a global GRS-Baseline vs GRS-Live toggle that permeates across all 10 data-displaying pages. Built the GRS-Live Alert Widget showing top signal movers. Implemented server-side OSINT headline translation to English via Forge LLM.
Key Highlights
- GRS-Baseline/GRS-Live toggle on Dashboard, World Map, Scenarios, Correlation, Compare, DataExplorer, Variable Explorer, Sensitivity, Intelligence, and Watchlist
- GRS-Live Alert Widget with top 5 countries by signal magnitude
- Server-side headline translation via Forge LLM
- Role-based access control (admin/user) for sensitive operations
Watchlist Management & Comparative Overlays
Built a dedicated Watchlist management page with 4-tier visualization, drag-and-drop reordering, and one-click add/remove from the dashboard. Added comparative GRS-Live overlays for multi-country trend analysis.
Key Highlights
- Watchlist page (/watchlist) with 4-tier priority system
- Comparative GRS-Live overlays (multi-country selection, 3 view modes)
- Signal-only country tracking for nations without GRS baseline
- Email digest scheduling (daily/weekly summary)
Scheduler Expansion, Notifications & Trend Chart
Expanded the automated scheduler to cover all 85 ARGOS nations with a 4-tier priority system. Added owner notifications for high-magnitude OSINT events and a GRS-Live historical trend chart.
Key Highlights
- 85-nation scheduler with 4 priority tiers (Critical, High, Elevated, Standard)
- Owner notifications for GRS-Live jumps exceeding 3 points
- GRS-Live historical trend chart (GRSLiveTrendChart.tsx)
- Configurable watchlist overrides for priority scheduling
Intelligence Page, Alerts & Scheduled Refresh
Built a dedicated Intelligence page displaying categorized OSINT articles with sub-index assignments and confidence scores. Added scheduled 6-hour signal refresh for automatic GRS-Live updates.
Key Highlights
- Intelligence page (/intelligence) with categorized OSINT articles
- Sub-index assignment badges and confidence scores per article
- Automated 6-hour signal refresh cycle (scheduler.ts)
- Live GDELT ingestion with Refresh Signals button
AI Signal Layer & GRS-Live
Launched the AI Signal Layer (Layer 8) that ingests real-time OSINT from GDELT, classifies events via Forge LLM, and produces 7 AI adjustment signals (ISI-AI, ETI-AI, EVI-AI, CEI-AI, ACI-AI, ENV-AI, SCI-AI). GRS-Live = GRS-Baseline + AI Signal Adjustment.
Key Highlights
- GDELT ingestion API route (server-side, no CORS issues)
- Forge LLM classification for sub-index mapping
- GRS-Live computation: baseline + AI adjustment
- GRS-Live panel on Dashboard with signal indicators and timeline
- Layer 8 added to ARGOS Data Pipeline animation
ARGOS Platform Launch
Initial release of the ARGOS Geopolitical Risk Engine web platform. Implements the full 7-layer computational architecture with 22 statistical models, 104 base input variables, and 7 sub-indices producing a Geopolitical Risk Score (GRS) for 87 nations.
Key Highlights
- Dashboard with interactive world map, risk gauge, sub-index profiles, and radar charts
- Scenario Builder for what-if sub-index simulations
- Correlation Matrix, Sensitivity Analysis, and Data Explorer
- Compare page for multi-country analysis
- Case Studies, Methodology, Wiki, About, and Legal pages
- PDF export (one-page brief and full briefing)
- World Bank live data integration
- Historical GRS back-calculation (2005-2024)