What-If Analysis

Scenario Runner

Adjust the five ARGOS sub-indices using rotary dials or sliders to model hypothetical scenarios. Compare how the same shock affects different nations or entire geopolitical blocs side by side.

GRS-Baseline: -2.6 (Low)
Preset Scenarios
Adjust Sub-Indices

Drag the rotary dials to adjust values

10±0

ISI

Internal Stability Index

6±0

ETI

External Threat Index

23±0

EVI

Economic Vulnerability Index

15±0

CEI

Cascade Exposure Index

90±0

ACI

Adaptive Capacity Index

GRS Calculation
ComponentWeightBaselineScenarioContribution
ISI+25%1010+2.50
ETI+25%66+1.50
EVI+20%2323+4.60
CEI+15%1515+2.25
ACI-15%9090-13.50
Composite GRS-2.6

GRS = 0.25 × ISI + 0.25 × ETI + 0.20 × EVI + 0.15 × CEI − 0.15 × ACI

Scenario Result
-2.6LOWLowCritical
Low
Risk Profile Shift
ISIETIEVICEIACI0255075100
Scenario Baseline
Tier Transition

Baseline

-2.6

Low
0

Scenario

-2.6

Low