What-If Analysis

Scenario Runner

Adjust the seven ARGOS sub-indices using rotary dials or sliders to model hypothetical scenarios. Compare how the same shock affects different nations or entire geopolitical blocs side by side. For systemic-level analysis, visit the Redshift Monitor to explore GRS-z trajectories.

GRS-Baseline: 9.5 (Low)
Preset Scenarios
Adjust Sub-Indices

Drag the rotary dials to adjust values

10±0

ISI

Internal Stability Index

6±0

ETI

External Threat Index

23±0

EVI

Economic Vulnerability Index

15±0

CEI

Cascade Exposure Index

90±0

ACI

Adaptive Capacity Index

44±0

ENV

Environmental Vulnerability Index

61±0

SCI

Supply Chain Intelligence Index

GRS Calculation
ComponentWeightBaselineScenarioContribution
ISI+25%1010+2.50
ETI+25%66+1.50
EVI+20%2323+4.60
CEI+15%1515+2.25
ACI-15%9090-13.50
ENV+15%4444+6.60
SCI+10%6161+6.10
Composite GRS13.0

GRS = λ1(0.25×ISI + 0.25×ETI + 0.20×EVI + 0.15×CEI − 0.15×ACI) + λ4×ENV + λ5×SCI

Scenario Result
13.0LOWLowCritical
Low+3.5 from baseline
Risk Profile Shift
ISIETIEVICEIACIENVSCI0255075100
Scenario Baseline
Tier Transition

Baseline

9.5

Low
+3.5

Scenario

13.0

Low