{"_meta":{"endpoint":"/api/validation-evidence","version":"2.0.0","generatedAt":"2026-05-26T17:06:12.089Z","description":"Machine-parsable validation evidence for the ARGOS Geopolitical Risk Engine. All metrics are computed from the 47-event retrospective calibration set. This is IN-SAMPLE data: the same events were used to calibrate the GRS weighting scheme.","epistemicCaveat":"Because no holdout set or walk-forward protocol has been applied, these metrics demonstrate internal consistency, not predictive accuracy. Prospective validation is being accumulated via the Live Brier Tracker (separate endpoint).","dataLicense":"Research and educational use only. See /legal for full terms."},"summary":{"totalEvents":47,"truePositiveCount":39,"falseNegativeCount":8,"truePositiveRate":0.8298,"falseNegativeRate":0.1702,"brierScore":0.238,"brierSkillScore":-0.535,"climatologicalBaseline":0.155,"brierInterpretation":"The negative Brier Skill Score indicates that GRS/85, treated as a raw probability, does not outperform the climatological baseline (always predicting the base rate of 81%). This is expected: GRS is a composite risk-ranking score, not a calibrated probability forecast. Its strength lies in threshold-based detection (TPR 83.0%), not in producing well-calibrated event probabilities from a linear normalization.","bssNegativeExplanation":"Why is the BSS negative? The Brier Skill Score compares GRS/85 as a probability against the base rate (81%). Because 81% of events in this set are high-severity crises, simply predicting that rate for every case yields a lower Brier score than using GRS/85. This does not mean the model lacks discriminative power. It means that dividing GRS by 85 does not produce a well-calibrated probability. The model's value is in threshold-based risk classification (78.7% TPR at the Elevated threshold), not in raw probability output. A proper calibration layer (e.g., Platt scaling or isotonic regression) applied to GRS could improve the Brier score, but that would require out-of-sample data not yet available.","logLoss":0.67,"baselineLogLoss":0.488,"auc":0.88,"aucInterpretation":"Good discrimination (AUC 0.8-0.9). In this in-sample 47-event retrospective set, GRS achieves an AUC of 0.88, indicating meaningful ability to separate high-severity crises from lower-severity events by GRS score alone. Note: this is in-sample and may overestimate true discriminative power.","prAuc":0.946,"prAucBaselinePrevalence":0.809,"prAucInterpretation":"PR-AUC of 0.946 against a random-classifier baseline of 0.809 (the prevalence of severity >= 4 events). The model provides meaningful precision-recall trade-off above random. Note: this is in-sample and the high prevalence of positive cases (81%) inflates both baselines and model scores."},"eventRegister":[{"id":1,"year":2022,"quarter":"Q4 2021","country":"Ukraine","countryCode":"UKR","event":"Russian full-scale invasion","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":44.3,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"GRS crossed Elevated threshold 2 quarters prior"},{"id":2,"year":2023,"quarter":"Q3 2023","country":"Israel","countryCode":"ISR","event":"October 7 attack and Gaza war","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":38.2,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"ISI sub-index was primary driver"},{"id":3,"year":2021,"quarter":"Q2 2021","country":"Ethiopia","countryCode":"ETH","event":"Tigray War escalation","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":52.1,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Already in High tier before escalation"},{"id":4,"year":2021,"quarter":"Q1 2021","country":"Myanmar","countryCode":"MMR","event":"Military coup","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":41.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"ISI and CEI both elevated"},{"id":5,"year":2020,"quarter":"Q4 2019","country":"Libya","countryCode":"LBY","event":"Tripoli offensive intensification","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":58.4,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"Persistent High tier since 2014"},{"id":6,"year":2023,"quarter":"Q1 2023","country":"Sudan","countryCode":"SDN","event":"RSF-SAF civil war outbreak","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":55.7,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"GRS was already High from prior instability"},{"id":7,"year":2020,"quarter":"Q3 2020","country":"Azerbaijan","countryCode":"AZE","event":"Nagorno-Karabakh war","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":33.6,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"ISI sub-index flagged territorial dispute"},{"id":8,"year":2014,"quarter":"Q4 2013","country":"Ukraine","countryCode":"UKR","event":"Crimea annexation","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":31.2,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Euromaidan protests preceded"},{"id":9,"year":2014,"quarter":"Q1 2014","country":"Iraq","countryCode":"IRQ","event":"ISIS territorial expansion","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":62.3,"grsTierPreEvent":"Critical","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Already Critical tier"},{"id":10,"year":2015,"quarter":"Q4 2014","country":"Yemen","countryCode":"YEM","event":"Saudi-led intervention begins","category":"conflict","grsPreEvent":56.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Houthi takeover preceded"},{"id":11,"year":2008,"quarter":"Q3 2008","country":"United States","countryCode":"USA","event":"Lehman Brothers collapse / GFC","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":18.5,"grsTierPreEvent":"Low","flaggedElevated":false,"severityActual":5,"notes":"EVI sub-index rose but GRS stayed Low - known blind spot for pure financial crises"},{"id":12,"year":2010,"quarter":"Q4 2009","country":"Greece","countryCode":"GRC","event":"Sovereign debt crisis onset","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":28.4,"grsTierPreEvent":"Moderate","flaggedElevated":false,"severityActual":4,"notes":"EVI was elevated but overall GRS below threshold"},{"id":13,"year":2018,"quarter":"Q2 2018","country":"Turkey","countryCode":"TUR","event":"Lira currency crisis","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":35.2,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":3,"notes":"ETI and EVI both contributed"},{"id":14,"year":2019,"quarter":"Q1 2019","country":"Argentina","countryCode":"ARG","event":"Peso crisis and IMF 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sanctions","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":39.7,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"Sanctions + oil price collapse"},{"id":18,"year":2020,"quarter":"Q1 2020","country":"Lebanon","countryCode":"LBN","event":"Banking system collapse","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":46.3,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Multi-year deterioration captured"},{"id":19,"year":2023,"quarter":"Q4 2022","country":"Egypt","countryCode":"EGY","event":"Pound devaluation and inflation crisis","category":"economic","grsPreEvent":36.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":3,"notes":"ETI and EVI elevated"},{"id":20,"year":2011,"quarter":"Q4 2010","country":"Tunisia","countryCode":"TUN","event":"Jasmine Revolution (Arab Spring origin)","category":"political","grsPreEvent":41.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"GRS crossed Elevated 8 quarters prior"},{"id":21,"year":2011,"quarter":"Q4 2010","country":"Egypt","countryCode":"EGY","event":"Tahrir Square revolution","category":"political","grsPreEvent":38.9,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":5,"notes":"Contagion from Tunisia, 38 days later"},{"id":22,"year":2019,"quarter":"Q3 2019","country":"Hong Kong","countryCode":"HKG","event":"Pro-democracy protests","category":"political","grsPreEvent":22.4,"grsTierPreEvent":"Moderate","flaggedElevated":false,"severityActual":3,"notes":"ACI sub-index was elevated but overall GRS below threshold"},{"id":23,"year":2016,"quarter":"Q2 2016","country":"United Kingdom","countryCode":"GBR","event":"Brexit referendum","category":"political","grsPreEvent":12.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"Low","flaggedElevated":false,"severityActual":3,"notes":"Domestic political events in stable democracies are a known limitation"},{"id":24,"year":2016,"quarter":"Q3 2016","country":"Turkey","countryCode":"TUR","event":"Failed coup attempt","category":"political","grsPreEvent":37.4,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"ISI and CEI both elevated"},{"id":25,"year":2019,"quarter":"Q4 2019","country":"Bolivia","countryCode":"BOL","event":"Political crisis and Morales ouster","category":"political","grsPreEvent":29.8,"grsTierPreEvent":"Moderate","flaggedElevated":false,"severityActual":3,"notes":"Just below Elevated threshold"},{"id":26,"year":2022,"quarter":"Q2 2022","country":"Sri Lanka","countryCode":"LKA","event":"President Rajapaksa ousted","category":"political","grsPreEvent":42.5,"grsTierPreEvent":"Elevated","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"Same crisis as economic event #15"},{"id":27,"year":2013,"quarter":"Q2 2013","country":"Egypt","countryCode":"EGY","event":"Military coup against Morsi","category":"political","grsPreEvent":48.2,"grsTierPreEvent":"High","flaggedElevated":true,"severityActual":4,"notes":"Post-revolution 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>= 30 (Elevated+)","tp":34,"fp":5,"fn":4,"tn":4,"accuracy":0.809,"precision":0.872,"recall":0.895,"f1Score":0.883,"specificity":0.444,"n":47},{"threshold":45,"thresholdLabel":"GRS >= 45 (High+)","tp":12,"fp":0,"fn":26,"tn":9,"accuracy":0.447,"precision":1,"recall":0.316,"f1Score":0.48,"specificity":1,"n":47},{"threshold":60,"thresholdLabel":"GRS >= 60 (Critical+)","tp":4,"fp":0,"fn":34,"tn":9,"accuracy":0.277,"precision":1,"recall":0.105,"f1Score":0.19,"specificity":1,"n":47}],"calibrationBins":[{"binLabel":"Low (< 15)","grsRange":[-15,15],"count":2,"crisisCount":1,"predictedRate":0,"observedRate":0.5,"events":["United Kingdom: Brexit referendum (2016)","Italy: COVID-19 first European wave (2020)"]},{"binLabel":"Moderate (15-30)","grsRange":[15,30],"count":6,"crisisCount":3,"predictedRate":0.2647058823529412,"observedRate":0.5,"events":["United States: Lehman Brothers collapse / GFC (2008)","Greece: Sovereign debt crisis onset (2010)","Hong Kong: Pro-democracy protests (2019)","Bolivia: Political crisis and Morales ouster (2019)","Nepal: Gorkha earthquake (2015)","Kazakhstan: Bloody January protests (2022)"]},{"binLabel":"Elevated (30-45)","grsRange":[30,45],"count":27,"crisisCount":22,"predictedRate":0.4411764705882353,"observedRate":0.8148148148148148,"events":["Ukraine: Russian full-scale invasion (2022)","Israel: October 7 attack and Gaza war (2023)","Myanmar: Military coup (2021)","Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020)","Ukraine: Crimea annexation (2014)","Turkey: Lira currency crisis (2018)","Argentina: Peso crisis and IMF restructuring (2019)","Sri Lanka: Sovereign default and political collapse (2022)","Pakistan: IMF bailout and economic emergency (2023)","Russia: Ruble crisis following sanctions (2015)","Egypt: Pound devaluation and inflation crisis (2023)","Tunisia: Jasmine Revolution (Arab Spring origin) (2011)","Egypt: Tahrir Square revolution (2011)","Turkey: Failed coup attempt (2016)","Sri Lanka: President Rajapaksa ousted (2022)","Thailand: Military coup (2014)","Bangladesh: Student protests topple Hasina government (2024)","Pakistan: Catastrophic flooding (2022)","Sierra Leone: Ebola outbreak (2014)","Turkey: Earthquake (magnitude 7.8) (2023)","Libya: Civil war and NATO intervention (2011)","Syria: Civil war begins (2011)","Nigeria: Boko Haram Chibok kidnapping / territorial expansion (2014)","Myanmar: Rohingya crisis (2017)","Mali: Tuareg rebellion and military coup (2012)","Burundi: Political crisis and violence (2016)","Algeria: Hirak protest movement (2019)"]},{"binLabel":"High (45-60)","grsRange":[45,60],"count":8,"crisisCount":8,"predictedRate":0.6176470588235294,"observedRate":1,"events":["Ethiopia: Tigray War escalation (2021)","Libya: Tripoli offensive intensification (2020)","Sudan: RSF-SAF civil war outbreak (2023)","Yemen: Saudi-led intervention begins (2015)","Lebanon: Banking system collapse (2020)","Egypt: Military coup against Morsi (2013)","Haiti: Earthquake (magnitude 7.0) 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above"},{"model":"ARGOS GRS (in-sample)","description":"GRS/85 as probability proxy","metric":"Brier Score","value":0.238,"notes":"Lower is better. Climatological baseline: 0.155"},{"model":"Naive baseline: always predict \"Elevated\"","description":"Flag every country every quarter","metric":"TPR","value":1,"notes":"Perfect recall but 100% false positive rate; no discrimination"},{"model":"Naive baseline: random coin flip","description":"Flag 50% of country-quarters randomly","metric":"Expected TPR","value":0.5,"notes":"No information content"},{"model":"Fragile States Index (FSI)","description":"Fund for Peace annual country ranking","metric":"Comparable TPR (literature)","value":0.72,"notes":"Approximate from published FSI validation studies; annual granularity only"},{"model":"Global Peace Index (GPI)","description":"IEP annual peace ranking","metric":"Comparable TPR (literature)","value":0.68,"notes":"Approximate from published GPI methodology papers; focuses on peace/violence"},{"model":"ACLED event-count threshold","description":"Flag if ACLED fatality events > 100 in prior quarter","metric":"Estimated TPR","value":0.362,"notes":"Simulated: uses conflict-event proxy from BACKTEST_EVENTS. Countries with pre-event GRS ISI sub-index > 30 treated as high-ACLED. Captures conflict events well but misses economic/political crises."},{"model":"Regional GRS average","description":"Flag if regional mean GRS >= 30 (Elevated)","metric":"Estimated TPR","value":0.851,"notes":"Simulated: assigns each event its region's mean GRS from the 47-event set. Tests whether regional context alone provides signal."},{"model":"ETI-only (macro model)","description":"Single sub-index: Economic Trajectory only","metric":"Estimated TPR","value":0.83,"notes":"Simulated: flags events where the ETI sub-index contribution (grsPreEvent * 0.25) >= 7.5, approximating an ETI-only threshold. Tests whether economic indicators alone suffice."}],"rollingBacktest":[{"year":2008,"cumulativeEvents":1,"cumulativeTPR":0,"cumulativeBrier":0.612,"yearEvents":1,"yearTPR":0},{"year":2010,"cumulativeEvents":3,"cumulativeTPR":0.333,"cumulativeBrier":0.396,"yearEvents":2,"yearTPR":0.5},{"year":2011,"cumulativeEvents":7,"cumulativeTPR":0.714,"cumulativeBrier":0.337,"yearEvents":4,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2012,"cumulativeEvents":8,"cumulativeTPR":0.75,"cumulativeBrier":0.34,"yearEvents":1,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2013,"cumulativeEvents":9,"cumulativeTPR":0.778,"cumulativeBrier":0.323,"yearEvents":1,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2014,"cumulativeEvents":14,"cumulativeTPR":0.857,"cumulativeBrier":0.293,"yearEvents":5,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2015,"cumulativeEvents":17,"cumulativeTPR":0.824,"cumulativeBrier":0.29,"yearEvents":3,"yearTPR":0.667},{"year":2016,"cumulativeEvents":20,"cumulativeTPR":0.8,"cumulativeBrier":0.275,"yearEvents":3,"yearTPR":0.667},{"year":2017,"cumulativeEvents":21,"cumulativeTPR":0.81,"cumulativeBrier":0.276,"yearEvents":1,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2018,"cumulativeEvents":22,"cumulativeTPR":0.818,"cumulativeBrier":0.271,"yearEvents":1,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2019,"cumulativeEvents":27,"cumulativeTPR":0.778,"cumulativeBrier":0.241,"yearEvents":5,"yearTPR":0.6},{"year":2020,"cumulativeEvents":32,"cumulativeTPR":0.781,"cumulativeBrier":0.252,"yearEvents":5,"yearTPR":0.8},{"year":2021,"cumulativeEvents":35,"cumulativeTPR":0.8,"cumulativeBrier":0.244,"yearEvents":3,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2022,"cumulativeEvents":40,"cumulativeTPR":0.8,"cumulativeBrier":0.24,"yearEvents":5,"yearTPR":0.8},{"year":2023,"cumulativeEvents":45,"cumulativeTPR":0.822,"cumulativeBrier":0.239,"yearEvents":5,"yearTPR":1},{"year":2024,"cumulativeEvents":47,"cumulativeTPR":0.83,"cumulativeBrier":0.238,"yearEvents":2,"yearTPR":1}],"categoryBreakdown":[{"category":"Conflict","count":17,"flaggedCount":17,"tpr":1,"avgGRS":47.4,"avgSeverity":4.6},{"category":"Economic","count":9,"flaggedCount":7,"tpr":0.778,"avgGRS":36,"avgSeverity":4},{"category":"Political","count":14,"flaggedCount":10,"tpr":0.714,"avgGRS":36,"avgSeverity":3.6},{"category":"Social","count":7,"flaggedCount":5,"tpr":0.714,"avgGRS":35.7,"avgSeverity":4.4}],"evidenceClassification":{"retrospective":{"status":"Complete","description":"47 hand-selected geopolitical events, 2008-2024. Same events used for both calibration and evaluation.","primaryMetric":"True Positive Rate: 83.0% of events flagged at Elevated+ tier before occurrence.","whatItProves":"Internal consistency: the GRS tier system rank-orders historical crises in a manner consistent with their observed severity.","knownLimitations":"No holdout set. Events were used to set model weights. GRS/85 heuristic normalization produces a negative Brier Skill Score (-53.5%) because GRS is not a calibrated probability."},"prospective":{"status":"Accumulating","description":"Live Brier Tracker: automated GRS-Live snapshots recorded every 6 hours by the scheduler, resolved against observed outcomes after 30-day forecast windows expire.","primaryMetric":"Running Brier Score (logistic calibration). Currently accumulating; requires 30+ resolved forecasts for statistical significance.","whatItProves":"Genuine predictive accuracy: whether GRS-derived probabilities, issued before events occur, match observed crisis rates.","knownLimitations":"Data collection began March 2026. Insufficient resolved forecasts for meaningful Brier scoring. Results will be published here as they accumulate."}}}