Structural Analysis

Risk Correlation Matrix

Mapping hidden geopolitical dependencies and contagion pathways. Countries with similar risk profiles, measured across ARGOS sub-indices, reveal structural linkages that amplify shock propagation across borders and blocs.

Positive Correlation

Red cells indicate countries whose risk profiles move in the same direction. A crisis in one is likely to be mirrored in the other - either through direct contagion or shared structural vulnerabilities.

Negative Correlation

Blue cells indicate inverse risk profiles. When one nation's risk rises, the other's tends to fall - often reflecting opposing positions in geopolitical competition or complementary economic structures.

Contagion Pathways

Pairs with correlation ≥ 0.75 are flagged as potential contagion channels. Shared bloc membership (NATO, BRICS+, SCO) amplifies transmission risk, as institutional ties create additional propagation mechanisms.

Presets

Blocs

Mode:

Show ClustersShow Contagion Paths

8/20 selected

Strongest Link

0.98

🇺🇸 USA ↔ 🇩🇪 DEU

Most Divergent

-0.98

🇷🇺 RUS ↔ 🇩🇪 DEU

Mean Correlation

-0.071

Across 28 pairs

Positive / Negative

13 / 15

46% co-moving

Pearson Correlation

−1.0

+1.0

5 sub-index dimensions

	🇺🇸USA	🇨🇳CHN	🇷🇺RUS	🇬🇧GBR	🇫🇷FRA	🇩🇪DEU	🇯🇵JPN	🇮🇳IND	GRS
🇺🇸United States	🇺🇸	-0.67	-0.98	0.96	0.89	0.98	0.67	-0.94	-2.6
🇨🇳China	-0.67	🇨🇳	0.66	-0.84	-0.90	-0.74	-0.88	0.74	24.5
🇷🇺Russia	-0.98	0.66	🇷🇺	-0.96	-0.90	-0.98	-0.72	0.93	41.9
🇬🇧United Kingdom	0.96	-0.84	-0.96	🇬🇧	0.98	0.98	0.82	-0.94	1.4
🇫🇷France	0.89	-0.90	-0.90	0.98	🇫🇷	0.91	0.81	-0.85	3.8
🇩🇪Germany	0.98	-0.74	-0.98	0.98	0.91	🇩🇪	0.79	-0.98	-1.5
🇯🇵Japan	0.67	-0.88	-0.72	0.82	0.81	0.79	🇯🇵	-0.83	2.7
🇮🇳India	-0.94	0.74	0.93	-0.94	-0.85	-0.98	-0.83	🇮🇳	19.2

Detected Risk Clusters

Countries within a cluster share correlation coefficients above 0.70, indicating structurally similar risk profiles. A shock to one member is likely to propagate to others.

Cluster Ar̄ = 0.88

🇺🇸 United States(-2.6)🇬🇧 United Kingdom(1.4)🇫🇷 France(3.8)🇩🇪 Germany(-1.5)🇯🇵 Japan(2.7)

Cluster Br̄ = 0.78

🇨🇳 China(24.5)🇮🇳 India(19.2)🇷🇺 Russia(41.9)

Contagion Pathways

Bilateral pairs with correlation ≥ 0.75 represent potential contagion pathways - channels through which geopolitical shocks in one nation may propagate to another. Shared bloc membership amplifies this risk.

Nation A	Correlation	Nation B	Shared Blocs	GRS Delta
🇺🇸United States-2.6	0.983	🇩🇪Germany-1.5	NATOG7G20	±1.1
🇬🇧United Kingdom1.4	0.978	🇩🇪Germany-1.5	NATOG7G20	±2.9
🇬🇧United Kingdom1.4	0.977	🇫🇷France3.8	NATOG7G20	±2.4
🇺🇸United States-2.6	0.958	🇬🇧United Kingdom1.4	NATOFive EyesG7G20	±4.0
🇷🇺Russia41.9	0.929	🇮🇳India19.2	BRICS+SCOG20	±22.7
🇫🇷France3.8	0.911	🇩🇪Germany-1.5	NATOEUG7G20	±5.3
🇺🇸United States-2.6	0.889	🇫🇷France3.8	NATOG7G20	±6.4
🇬🇧United Kingdom1.4	0.816	🇯🇵Japan2.7	G7G20	±1.3
🇫🇷France3.8	0.806	🇯🇵Japan2.7	G7G20	±1.1
🇩🇪Germany-1.5	0.786	🇯🇵Japan2.7	G7G20	±4.2

Methodology: Correlations are computed using the Pearson coefficient across the 5 ARGOS sub-index dimensions (ISI, ETI, EVI, CEI, ACI). Values are z-score normalized before computation. A correlation of +1.0 indicates identical risk profiles; −1.0 indicates perfectly inverse profiles. Clusters are detected at r ≥ 0.70; contagion pathways at r ≥ 0.75. These are structural correlations based on current-period data, not time-series co-movements.