๐บ๐ธ United States - Risk Profile
AI Signal Layer: Multi-source OSINT ingestion โ NLP classification โ AI signal generation โ GRS-Live
GRS Baseline
9.5
Layers 1-7 (Static)
GRS-Live
9.5
7-Layer + AI Signal Layer
AI Delta
0.0
Neutral
Values above reflect the selected country (United States). AI Delta is the net OSINT signal adjustment for this country only, computed from the most recent scheduler batch.
AI Signal Breakdown by Sub-Index
GRS-Live Formula (Enhanced 5-Stage Pipeline)
GRS-Live = ฮฃ(w_i ร (SI_i + Signal_i))
Signal refined via: Source Credibility โ Cluster Dedup โ DeGroot Consensus Fusion โ EMA Smoothing โ Confidence Clamping
100 events in database (last 30 days)
Scale Exceeds 50 Billion! Report Released: Online Literature Becomes a Key Pillar of "New Popular Arts"
US-Iran war: Is Pakistan a real peacemaker?
Australia appoints first female army chief
Australia appoints first female army chief
Pope Leo: I am not afraid of Trump administration
Pope Leo: I am not afraid of Trump administration
US-Iran talks: What prevented a deal and what's next?
US-Iran talks: What prevented a deal and what's next?
Nigeria terror trial: Nearly 400 terror suspects convicted
How much sway does Trump have over Hungarian voters?
Russian Memorial human rights NGO labeled 'extremist'
Ukrainian civilians abducted, tortured in Russian prisons
Methodology Note: Enhanced 5-Stage Signal Pipeline
The AI Signal Layer ingests real-time news from multiple OSINT sources. Currently active: NewsAPI.ai (200M+ articles), GDELT (events + V2Tone sentiment), UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), ReliefWeb (UN OCHA), ICG CrisisWatch, HDX, and 13 international wire services. ACLED is implemented but pending Research-tier API access. GDELT V2Tone sentiment is wired into CEI at 10% weight with z-score anomaly detection (v2.1). Each article is classified by the Forge LLM. Signals are refined through a 5-stage pipeline: (1) Bayesian source credibility scoring across 5 tiers of 50+ known outlets, (2) Jaccard trigram duplicate/cluster detection to down-weight correlated noise, (3) DeGroot consensus fusion via iterative weighted averaging dynamics (convergence holds under standard row-stochastic conditions (DeGroot, 1974)), (4) EMA temporal smoothing (ฮฒ=0.3), and (5) confidence-weighted clamping. This produces lower-variance signals compared to simple weighted averaging, under the assumption of signal independence (actual variance reduction depends on inter-signal covariance). The convergence visualization above shows the noise reduction in real-time after each ingestion.
North America
All 2024 baseline data feeding into the ARGOS engine
| Variable | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita | $76,330 | USD | World Bank |
| GDP Growth | 2.5% | % | World Bank |
| Inflation Rate | 3.4% | % | IMF WEO |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.7% | % | ILO / World Bank |
| Gini Coefficient | 41.4 | 0-100 | World Bank |
| Trade (% of GDP) | 25.6% | % | World Bank |
| FDI Inflow | $285.0B | M USD | UNCTAD |
| Government Debt (% GDP) | 123.3% | % | IMF WEO |
| Military Expenditure (% GDP) | 3.5% | % | SIPRI |
| Armed Forces Personnel | 1,388,000 | persons | IISS Military Balance |
| Nuclear Warheads | 5550 | count | FAS / SIPRI |
| Polity Score | 8 | -10 to +10 | Polity5 / CSP |
| V-Dem Liberal Democracy | 0.76 | 0-1 | V-Dem Institute |
| Press Freedom Score | 71.22 | 0-100 | RSF |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | 69 | 0-100 | Transparency International |
| Fragile States Index | 38.5 | 0-120 | Fund for Peace |
| Refugees by Origin | 5400 | persons | UNHCR |
| Battle-Related Deaths | 0 | persons/yr | UCDP |
| Protest Events | 3200 | events/yr | ACLED |
| Ethnic Fractionalization | 0.49 | 0-1 | Alesina et al. |
| Total Population | 334,914,895 | persons | UN Population Division |
| Population Growth | 0.5% | % | World Bank |
| Median Age | 38.5 | years | UN Population Division |
| Urban Population | 83.1% | % | World Bank |
| Life Expectancy | 77.5 | years | World Bank |
Global Risk Register
85 nations assessed| Country | GRS | Tier | ISI | ETI | EVI | CEI | ACI | ENV | SCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐พ๐ชYemen | 65.7 | Critical | 88 | 85 | 92 | 65 | 8 | 75 | 84 |
| ๐ธ๐พSyria | 64.7 | Critical | 85 | 82 | 90 | 72 | 10 | 69 | 81 |
| ๐ธ๐ฉSudan | 61.5 | Critical | 88 | 72 | 85 | 62 | 10 | 72 | 79 |
| ๐ฆ๐ซAfghanistan | 61.4 | Critical | 90 | 78 | 88 | 60 | 8 | 62 | 81 |
| ๐ธ๐ดSomalia | 59.3 | High | 92 | 68 | 88 | 58 | 5 | 55 | 83 |
| ๐ฎ๐ทIran | 54.9 | High | 64 | 73 | 76 | 68 | 35 | 67 | 71 |
| ๐ฐ๐ตNorth Korea | 52.5 | High | 76 | 74 | 85 | 53 | 25 | 45 | 74 |
| ๐ต๐ฐPakistan | 50.5 | High | 62 | 55 | 68 | 50 | 30 | 78 | 78 |
| ๐จ๐ฉDemocratic Republic of Congo | 50.2 | High | 82 | 55 | 72 | 55 | 12 | 41 | 74 |
| ๐บ๐ฆUkraine | 49.8 | High | 52 | 90 | 64 | 75 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
| ๐ฎ๐ถIraq | 49.8 | High | 68 | 55 | 60 | 58 | 22 | 60 | 76 |
| ๐ฒ๐ฒMyanmar | 45.6 | High | 78 | 42 | 65 | 48 | 15 | 45 | 70 |
| ๐ช๐นEthiopia | 45.4 | High | 68 | 42 | 62 | 48 | 18 | 50 | 80 |
| ๐ป๐ชVenezuela | 41.6 | Elevated | 72 | 22 | 82 | 45 | 18 | 32 | 75 |
| ๐ช๐ฌEgypt | 41.1 | Elevated | 50 | 30 | 58 | 42 | 35 | 72 | 75 |
| ๐ณ๐ฌNigeria | 40.0 | Elevated | 62 | 28 | 58 | 42 | 22 | 49 | 74 |
| ๐ท๐บRussia | 38.5 | Elevated | 45 | 72 | 48 | 60 | 40 | 29 | 42 |
| ๐ฎ๐ฑIsrael | 38.0 | Elevated | 30 | 75 | 22 | 60 | 80 | 60 | 69 |
| ๐ฒ๐ฟMozambique | 37.2 | Elevated | 55 | 25 | 58 | 38 | 20 | 42 | 77 |
| ๐น๐ทTurkey | 36.6 | Elevated | 42 | 38 | 52 | 45 | 42 | 47 | 74 |
| ๐ฏ๐ดJordan | 36.3 | Elevated | 35 | 30 | 42 | 45 | 42 | 62 | 80 |
| ๐ง๐พBelarus | 34.5 | Elevated | 55 | 35 | 38 | 45 | 28 | 23 | 79 |
| ๐ง๐ฉBangladesh | 34.1 | Elevated | 48 | 18 | 45 | 38 | 32 | 49 | 79 |
| ๐ธ๐ฆSaudi Arabia | 33.7 | Elevated | 28 | 35 | 32 | 42 | 55 | 71 | 71 |
| ๐ฆ๐ดAngola | 33.6 | Elevated | 52 | 18 | 55 | 35 | 22 | 37 | 73 |
| ๐ฑ๐ฐSri Lanka | 33.4 | Elevated | 38 | 15 | 55 | 32 | 38 | 59 | 80 |
| ๐ฎ๐ณIndia | 33.0 | Elevated | 30 | 28 | 35 | 40 | 55 | 72 | 70 |
| ๐บ๐ฟUzbekistan | 32.5 | Elevated | 42 | 20 | 40 | 28 | 30 | 63 | 71 |
| ๐ฉ๐ฟAlgeria | 32.5 | Elevated | 40 | 22 | 40 | 30 | 32 | 61 | 71 |
| ๐จ๐ณChina | 31.9 | Elevated | 35 | 42 | 30 | 55 | 60 | 56 | 37 |
| ๐ฐ๐ชKenya | 31.9 | Elevated | 40 | 22 | 42 | 35 | 35 | 46 | 78 |
| ๐ท๐ผRwanda | 31.0 | Elevated | 38 | 25 | 42 | 35 | 35 | 40 | 77 |
| ๐ฒ๐ฝMexico | 30.9 | Elevated | 45 | 15 | 38 | 35 | 42 | 51 | 74 |
| ๐ต๐ญPhilippines | 30.3 | Elevated | 35 | 28 | 38 | 32 | 40 | 49 | 71 |
| ๐ฟ๐ฆSouth Africa | 29.6 | Moderate | 42 | 12 | 50 | 30 | 52 | 54 | 69 |
| ๐ฐ๐ญCambodia | 29.5 | Moderate | 42 | 15 | 38 | 28 | 25 | 41 | 79 |
| ๐ณ๐ตNepal | 28.8 | Moderate | 35 | 12 | 42 | 30 | 32 | 43 | 80 |
| ๐ง๐ญBahrain | 28.5 | Moderate | 25 | 22 | 30 | 28 | 52 | 65 | 77 |
| ๐น๐ฟTanzania | 28.1 | Moderate | 38 | 12 | 38 | 28 | 30 | 42 | 77 |
| ๐จ๐ดColombia | 27.8 | Moderate | 40 | 18 | 42 | 35 | 45 | 31 | 74 |
| ๐ฒ๐ฆMorocco | 27.7 | Moderate | 32 | 18 | 35 | 28 | 38 | 47 | 75 |
| ๐ธ๐ณSenegal | 26.8 | Moderate | 30 | 12 | 38 | 25 | 38 | 48 | 78 |
| ๐ฌ๐ชGeorgia | 26.5 | Moderate | 30 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 48 | 28 | 79 |
| ๐ฐ๐ฟKazakhstan | 26.3 | Moderate | 35 | 18 | 35 | 30 | 38 | 38 | 67 |
| ๐ฎ๐ฉIndonesia | 26.0 | Moderate | 28 | 18 | 32 | 30 | 48 | 48 | 70 |
| ๐ฌ๐ญGhana | 26.0 | Moderate | 28 | 10 | 48 | 28 | 42 | 39 | 76 |
| ๐ฐ๐ผKuwait | 25.3 | Moderate | 18 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 60 | 64 | 72 |
| ๐ฆ๐ชUnited Arab Emirates | 25.2 | Moderate | 18 | 25 | 22 | 30 | 68 | 64 | 70 |
| ๐ด๐ฒOman | 25.1 | Moderate | 20 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 55 | 67 | 73 |
| ๐ป๐ณVietnam | 25.0 | Moderate | 32 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 45 | 40 | 59 |
| ๐ต๐ชPeru | 23.9 | Moderate | 38 | 10 | 35 | 25 | 48 | 35 | 72 |
| ๐ถ๐ฆQatar | 23.6 | Moderate | 15 | 20 | 18 | 25 | 65 | 67 | 72 |
| ๐ฐ๐ทSouth Korea | 23.6 | Moderate | 10 | 30 | 28 | 35 | 80 | 54 | 66 |
| ๐น๐ญThailand | 23.6 | Moderate | 30 | 15 | 28 | 25 | 50 | 43 | 71 |
| ๐ฒ๐ณMongolia | 22.8 | Moderate | 22 | 15 | 35 | 28 | 45 | 31 | 74 |
| ๐ฆ๐ทArgentina | 22.4 | Moderate | 25 | 8 | 55 | 22 | 52 | 32 | 70 |
| ๐ง๐ทBrazil | 21.6 | Moderate | 32 | 10 | 35 | 28 | 55 | 31 | 63 |
| ๐น๐ผTaiwan | 21.2 | Moderate | 8 | 45 | 22 | 40 | 82 | 25 | 66 |
| ๐ฌ๐ทGreece | 20.0 | Moderate | 15 | 18 | 38 | 22 | 68 | 34 | 74 |
| ๐ท๐ดRomania | 18.6 | Moderate | 18 | 15 | 30 | 22 | 62 | 28 | 73 |
| ๐ต๐ฑPoland | 18.4 | Moderate | 12 | 18 | 28 | 25 | 75 | 35 | 72 |
| ๐ฒ๐พMalaysia | 18.3 | Moderate | 20 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 58 | 28 | 66 |
| ๐ฏ๐ตJapan | 17.5 | Moderate | 6 | 15 | 32 | 25 | 85 | 44 | 66 |
| ๐ฎ๐นItaly | 17.4 | Moderate | 14 | 10 | 35 | 22 | 78 | 35 | 71 |
| ๐ช๐ธSpain | 16.8 | Moderate | 12 | 8 | 32 | 20 | 80 | 41 | 70 |
| ๐ซ๐ทFrance | 15.9 | Moderate | 15 | 12 | 30 | 22 | 82 | 30 | 68 |
| ๐จ๐ฑChile | 15.8 | Moderate | 15 | 8 | 28 | 18 | 72 | 32 | 71 |
| ๐ง๐ชBelgium | 14.0 | Low | 10 | 8 | 24 | 18 | 86 | 37 | 69 |
| ๐ฌ๐งUnited Kingdom | 13.7 | Low | 12 | 10 | 28 | 20 | 85 | 25 | 69 |
| ๐จ๐ฟCzech Republic | 13.4 | Low | 8 | 10 | 24 | 18 | 80 | 28 | 71 |
| ๐ฉ๐ชGermany | 13.3 | Low | 8 | 8 | 25 | 18 | 88 | 35 | 68 |
| ๐ต๐นPortugal | 12.4 | Low | 8 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 82 | 28 | 71 |
| ๐ธ๐ฌSingapore | 11.7 | Low | 8 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 90 | 32 | 66 |
| ๐บ๐ธUnited States | 9.5 | Low | 10 | 6 | 23 | 15 | 90 | 44 | 61 |
| ๐ณ๐ฑNetherlands | 9.5 | Low | 5 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 92 | 26 | 65 |
| ๐ฆ๐นAustria | 9.5 | Low | 6 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 88 | 21 | 69 |
| ๐จ๐ฆCanada | 9.0 | Low | 7 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 88 | 23 | 64 |
| ๐ฆ๐บAustralia | 8.5 | Low | 5 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 90 | 32 | 48 |
| ๐ธ๐ชSweden | 7.9 | Low | 5 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 92 | 16 | 66 |
| ๐ณ๐ฟNew Zealand | 7.7 | Low | 4 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 93 | 21 | 72 |
| ๐ฉ๐ฐDenmark | 7.6 | Low | 3 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 93 | 25 | 68 |
| ๐ฎ๐ชIreland | 6.9 | Low | 4 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 92 | 20 | 66 |
| ๐จ๐ญSwitzerland | 6.3 | Low | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 95 | 19 | 68 |
| ๐ซ๐ฎFinland | 5.1 | Low | 4 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 92 | 8 | 55 |
| ๐ณ๐ดNorway | -0.5 | Low | 3 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 95 | 14 | 62 |
Latest Risk Alerts
Intelligence feedPipeline Stage 1 of 5 (Raw Intake): These alerts show pre-deduplication inputs from the AI Signal Layer. Near-duplicate entries may appear when multiple sources report the same event. The downstream 5-stage refinement pipeline (source-tier weighting, deduplication, LLM classification, cross-validation, temporal decay) produces the final deduplicated signal used in GRS-Live computation.
UkraineโRussia Front Lines Stabilize as Diplomatic Track Gains Momentum
Ceasefire negotiations enter a new phase with EU-mediated talks in Geneva. Both sides signal willingness to discuss territorial arrangements, though fundamental disagreements persist. NATO allies increase defense spending commitments.
PLA Conducts Largest-Ever Joint Naval Exercise in Western Pacific
China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) deploys three carrier strike groups in simultaneous exercises spanning the South China Sea and Philippine Sea. Taiwan raises alert level; Japan and Australia announce joint patrol operations.
OPEC+ Announces Surprise Production Cut Amid Red Sea Shipping Disruptions
Saudi Arabia leads a 1.5M barrel/day production cut as Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea force rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope. Brent crude surges past $95/barrel, raising inflation concerns globally.
Sahel Alliance Expels Remaining Western Military Advisors
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formalize their security pact and order the departure of all Western military personnel. Russia's Africa Corps expands presence. France announces complete withdrawal from the Sahel theater.